I just read Nat Brown's blog "Stupid, Stupid xBox!!" http://ilikecode.wordpress.com/2013/02/12/stupid-stupid-xbox/. Nat was the founder of the original xBox project at Microsoft. No one better to provide insight into the culture over at Microsoft and does this post say it all!!! Growth is predicated upon innovation. Companies that cease to innovate, cease to grow. Sure, you can sustain a company for an extended period of time with a strategy of purchasing innovation but this will lead you down the path of low returns if any at all.
A great example of this in recent history is Hewlett Packard. Hewlett Packard is at the top of James Chanos's list of stocks to short. James Chanos of Kynikos is probably the most successful investor at shorting companies over extended periods of time. He recently hypothesized that Hewlett Packard's R&D was used to purchase other companies. Usually, by the time you purchase another company's great idea the growth cycle has already been sucked out of the concept doesn't add incremental gains to the acquiring company. This strategy has turned Hewlett Packard into a non growth investment.
Microsoft appears to be following the same category. Their culture is no longer supportive of innovation and according to Nat Brown.... stifles innovation and fresh ideas. There are different types of CEO's. There are those that are great at building a company from the ground up and then there are those that are great at managing an established company. Microsoft is no longer the upstart company that Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer created. Perhaps their best days are behind them. Nat Brown's blog highlights not only Microsoft's inability to succeed in the gaming space... but the overall mindset that has plagued the company for the past 13 years. Bill Parcells, who is a Hall of Fame Football coach, is coined with the phrase "You are what your record says you are." Microsoft's stock price over the past 13 years has been flat to negative. Microsoft is what it's record says it is.
Nat's blog will give you more of an insight into the investment profile of Microsoft than any financial analyst on the street. Thanks to Nat for this insightful piece on the gaming market and where it is going. More importantly, how Microsoft is being left behind.
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